Wednesday, October 29, 2008

A new mathematical formula to predict the Knicks'win total:a three pronged approach

Well Last year I came up with a seemingly logical but apparently very flawed 5+5 theory. I figured that if top offensive talent Jamal Crawford had stayed healthy during the 2006-2007 season, the Knicks would have won 5 more games than its total that season of 33. Then, I figured that with the acquisition of a talented scorer/rebounder Zach Randolph in the offseason between the 2006-2007 season and 2007-2008 campaigns, the Knick’s win total would increase by another 5 games. Therefore last year I predicted the Knicks would win 43 games. Well I was only 20 games off. So you might be thinking, The Knicks finally got rid of one of the worst human beings ever to be associated with the Knicks (yes that is saying a mouthful) in the offseason and It added a proven coach in Mike D’Antoni. So maybe this is finally the season to really predict an 8th seed for the locals. Hardly…..

The Good

Offense- B= this is the one area of this team that is reasonably solid. Jamal Crawford is a proven scorer (but also loser, more on that latter), and Zach Randolph is also a fairly prolific scorer in addition to being a good rebounder. David Lee is a great rebounder and a very bright player. He is probably the only winning player on the team. Chris Duhon provides the Knicks with its steadiest hand at the point guard spot since Derrick Harper. Quinton Richardson even can knock down the 3 as he did in the D’Antoni system several years ago when he played for the Suns. (You think D’Antoni and Q dreamed of this night 5 years ago when they were playing in conference finals games out in the warm Arizona sun?) This offense really should be half decent. WIN

Considering only offense, projected win total= 49

The Bad

Defense D+= This is the worst defensive team in the East for sure. Chris Duhon is the only average defender on this team. Every other member of the starting 5 is bad or worse defensively. Lee and Crawford hustle but just don’t have good lateral quickness or defensive instincts. Zach Randolph is a bad defensive player and is made worse by his complete e lack of hustle. Quinton Richardson was once an above average defender but his speed and quickness have completely left his broken down body. Simply, put this is a terrible defensive team.

Considering only defense, projected win total= 22

The Ugly

Intangibles= F: I actually think D’Antoni is/was the right man for this job. He, unlike Mark Jackson, has a proven track record of racking up 50 win season in the NBA. He has a system that arguably led to the greatest years of Steve Nash’s hall of fame career. Whether or not his system was the cause of the Sun’s excellent playoff run or whether it was almost entirely due to him coaching the right team at the right team is to be determined. However this is the only decent thing I can say about this team’s “makeup”. Marbury is a complete moron, Jamal and Nate are exciting to watch and very nice guys (they stopped short in the middle of 7th avenue to sign autographs for random kids, I saw this), but they are also not blessed with much upstairs. Neither player has ever seen a shot he didn’t want to take to the locker room and bang. Randolph is either the most selfish player in the league or the dumbest. It is probably a little of column A and a little of Column B. He not only is a chucker but he is a true ball hog. At least if Jamal is trapped he passes the ball. Randolph will either turn it over or just take a fade away three over several defenders. He is a very poor man’s (though not financially thanks to the aforementioned evil man that used to run the show) Gilbert Arenas. David Lee and Duhon have solid plus intangibles but the other key members of D,Antoni’s rotation not only neutralize this, they make New York the dumbest and least clutch team in the NBA.

Considering only intangibles, the predicted win total= 4

Therefore this year’s mathematical formula for predicting the Knick’s win total is 49+ 22+4 / 3= 25 wins

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